WFP is working on a project on pigs, and were hiring for a project on beef cows, but they only have data on chickens. I think the conditions of pigs and cows are better than those of hens in conventional cages and broilers in a conventional scenario, and I guess they are also better than those of hens in cage-free aviaries and broilers in a reformed scenario, but not by a lot. I also guess cows have better conditions than pigs. In sum, I would say:
For my guesses for pain intensities, pigs have negative lives, but cows may have positive/negative lives.
For Laura’s guesses for pain intensities, cows and pigs may have positive/negative lives.
The calculations would also be complicated by the necessary inclusion of veal for cows, and gestation crates for pigs, since these are a necessary part of current systems and certainly bad most of the time.
Nice point. As for male chicks and broiler breeders, I do not think accounting for veals changes the overall picture that much:
According to Compassion in World Farming (CIWF), “Around six million calves are reared for veal within the EU every year”. Veals are defined in the EU as having less than 1 year. If veals are slaughtered at 0.5 years (= 1⁄2), their population is 3 M (= 6*10^6*0.5), i.e. 4.18 % (= 3/(74.8 − 3)) of the number of non-veal cows in the EU.
If non-veal cows have negative lives, and veal cows’ conditions are 2.5 times as bad, accounding for veals only decreases the overall welfare by 10.4 % (= 0.0418*2.5).
However, it looks like accounting for pigs in gestation crates may be more important:
From Wikipedia, “There were 5.36 million breeding sows in the United States as of 2016, out of a total of 50.1 million pigs”, i.e. 12.0 % (= 5.36/(50.1 − 5.36)) as many pigs in gestation crates as outside these.
If pigs outside gestation crates have negative lives, and the conditions of pigs in gestation crates are 2.5 times as bad as those of pigs outside them, accounting for pigs in gestation crates decreases the overall welfare by 30.0 % (= 0.120*2.5).
But since grass-fed cows are likely to be better treated than other animals, it would be good to know if their lives are positive and can maybe provide a template for other forms of animal agriculture (although economic incentives don’t push in this direction).
I was referring to non-grass-fed cows above. For both my and Laura’s guesses for pain intensities, I think grass-fed cows have positive lives.
This is really interesting. Do you think that the fact cows are separated from their child, and arguably really don’t like that, would change significantly the results?
Thanks for another relevant question too! I do not think that alone would make dairy production net negative:
According to CIWF, “Dairy cows must give birth to one calf per year in order to continue producing milk”.
From Animal Australia, “both mother and calf can often be heard calling out for each other for hours [after they are separated]”.
Assuming disabling pain of 3 h/year for each the mother and child based on the above, one gets 6 h/year (= 2*3) of disabling pain. For my intensity of disabling pain, that corresponds to a loss of 0.00684 AQALY/year (= 6/24/365.25*10).
The above is quite small in comparison with the magnitude of the values I got for chickens and shrimp. So, in the absence of longer term effects from the separation, I do not think it would bring dairy production from positive to negative.
Thanks, CB!
WFP is working on a project on pigs, and were hiring for a project on beef cows, but they only have data on chickens. I think the conditions of pigs and cows are better than those of hens in conventional cages and broilers in a conventional scenario, and I guess they are also better than those of hens in cage-free aviaries and broilers in a reformed scenario, but not by a lot. I also guess cows have better conditions than pigs. In sum, I would say:
For my guesses for pain intensities, pigs have negative lives, but cows may have positive/negative lives.
For Laura’s guesses for pain intensities, cows and pigs may have positive/negative lives.
Nice point. As for male chicks and broiler breeders, I do not think accounting for veals changes the overall picture that much:
According to Compassion in World Farming (CIWF), “Around six million calves are reared for veal within the EU every year”. Veals are defined in the EU as having less than 1 year. If veals are slaughtered at 0.5 years (= 1⁄2), their population is 3 M (= 6*10^6*0.5), i.e. 4.18 % (= 3/(74.8 − 3)) of the number of non-veal cows in the EU.
If non-veal cows have negative lives, and veal cows’ conditions are 2.5 times as bad, accounding for veals only decreases the overall welfare by 10.4 % (= 0.0418*2.5).
However, it looks like accounting for pigs in gestation crates may be more important:
From Wikipedia, “There were 5.36 million breeding sows in the United States as of 2016, out of a total of 50.1 million pigs”, i.e. 12.0 % (= 5.36/(50.1 − 5.36)) as many pigs in gestation crates as outside these.
If pigs outside gestation crates have negative lives, and the conditions of pigs in gestation crates are 2.5 times as bad as those of pigs outside them, accounting for pigs in gestation crates decreases the overall welfare by 30.0 % (= 0.120*2.5).
I was referring to non-grass-fed cows above. For both my and Laura’s guesses for pain intensities, I think grass-fed cows have positive lives.
Thanks for the answer !
This is really interesting. Do you think that the fact cows are separated from their child, and arguably really don’t like that, would change significantly the results?
Thanks for another relevant question too! I do not think that alone would make dairy production net negative:
According to CIWF, “Dairy cows must give birth to one calf per year in order to continue producing milk”.
From Animal Australia, “both mother and calf can often be heard calling out for each other for hours [after they are separated]”.
Assuming disabling pain of 3 h/year for each the mother and child based on the above, one gets 6 h/year (= 2*3) of disabling pain. For my intensity of disabling pain, that corresponds to a loss of 0.00684 AQALY/year (= 6/24/365.25*10).
The above is quite small in comparison with the magnitude of the values I got for chickens and shrimp. So, in the absence of longer term effects from the separation, I do not think it would bring dairy production from positive to negative.
Thanks for the answer ! I wish more people thought about these questions.