I would be curious how much the pandemic preparedness stuff is actually a crux. E.g. if gain of function research is restricted within the next year, would that noticeably change your estimate of how helpful a warning shot will be?
I think this is kind of testing your argument (2) – EA advisors might possibly become more influential within the next year. (And also it just takes forever to do anything in policy.)
I would be curious how much the pandemic preparedness stuff is actually a crux. E.g. if gain of function research is restricted within the next year, would that noticeably change your estimate of how helpful a warning shot will be?
I think this is kind of testing your argument (2) – EA advisors might possibly become more influential within the next year. (And also it just takes forever to do anything in policy.)