The evidence for the importance of growth is weaker than RCTS by its nature. We’re mostly relying on arguments from authority and the eye test. Most economists agree that institutions matter. Shenzhen before and after SEZ status gives an idea of the potential upside. I think most economists would be sympathetic to our high, med, and low estimates of growth.
Very pessimistic is 0, and very optimistic is 5+%, but we bounded our estimates
Yeah, I’m not expecting RCTs. I just think that some attempt at causal inference would be great (e.g. instrumental variable, difference in differences). I also don’t think this is a purely procedural complaint (i.e. not just a rote repetition of “Correlation isn’t causation!”)--I think there are real risks around confounding and external validity.
I’m also fully onboard for the claim that institutions matter. For me, the uncertainty comes in when we ask “Can this intervention change the right institutions with the right direction and magnitude?”.
(Also, I don’t think it’ll be that productive to talk about without bringing more serious evidence to bear but even 0 doesn’t strike me as “very pessimistic”. There have been plenty of well-intentioned policies with a net negative effect.)
Another beef I have is defining what an institution actually is. Institutionalists in economics often start by defining them as the ‘rules of the game’, which is vague as it is, but then the term gets extended to mean ‘stuff’ in the empirical investigations of the impact of institutions.
The evidence for the importance of growth is weaker than RCTS by its nature. We’re mostly relying on arguments from authority and the eye test. Most economists agree that institutions matter. Shenzhen before and after SEZ status gives an idea of the potential upside. I think most economists would be sympathetic to our high, med, and low estimates of growth.
Very pessimistic is 0, and very optimistic is 5+%, but we bounded our estimates
Yeah, I’m not expecting RCTs. I just think that some attempt at causal inference would be great (e.g. instrumental variable, difference in differences). I also don’t think this is a purely procedural complaint (i.e. not just a rote repetition of “Correlation isn’t causation!”)--I think there are real risks around confounding and external validity.
I’m also fully onboard for the claim that institutions matter. For me, the uncertainty comes in when we ask “Can this intervention change the right institutions with the right direction and magnitude?”.
(Also, I don’t think it’ll be that productive to talk about without bringing more serious evidence to bear but even 0 doesn’t strike me as “very pessimistic”. There have been plenty of well-intentioned policies with a net negative effect.)
Another beef I have is defining what an institution actually is. Institutionalists in economics often start by defining them as the ‘rules of the game’, which is vague as it is, but then the term gets extended to mean ‘stuff’ in the empirical investigations of the impact of institutions.