For forecasts, here’s Manifold’s US Democracy questions, which I suggest sorting by total traders (and unfortunately, anything n<30 traders becomes quite unreliable) and I also have a Manifold dashboard compiled where questions are grouped a bit more by theme here.
Main questions are:
“If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (58%, n = 191)”—criticism of the V-DEM benchmark here
“Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030? (73%, n = 123)”
“Will Donald Trump arrest his political opponents [before 2026]? (41%, n = 76)”
“Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032? (55%, n = 68)”
“Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term? (7%, n = 44)”
For forecasts, here’s Manifold’s US Democracy questions, which I suggest sorting by total traders (and unfortunately, anything n<30 traders becomes quite unreliable) and I also have a Manifold dashboard compiled where questions are grouped a bit more by theme here.
Main questions are:
“If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (58%, n = 191)”—criticism of the V-DEM benchmark here
“Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030? (73%, n = 123)”
“Will Donald Trump arrest his political opponents [before 2026]? (41%, n = 76)”
“Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032? (55%, n = 68)”
“Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term? (7%, n = 44)”