To decompose your question into several sub-questions:
Should you defer to price signals for cause prioritization?
My rough sense is that price signals are about as good as the 80th percentile EA’s cause prio, ranked by how much time they’ve spent thinking about cause prioritization.
(This is mostly because most EAs do not think about cause prio very much. I think you could outperform by spending ~1 week thinking about it, for example.)
Should you defer to price signals for choosing between organizations within a given cause?
This mostly seems decent to me. For example, CG struggled to find organizations better than Givewell’s top charities for near-termist, human-centric work.
Notable exceptions here for work which people don’t want to fund for non-effectiveness reasons, like politics or adversarial campaigning.
Should you defer to price signals for choosing between roles within an organization?
Yes, I mostly trust organizations to price appropriately, although also I think you can just ask the hiring manager.
To decompose your question into several sub-questions:
Should you defer to price signals for cause prioritization?
My rough sense is that price signals are about as good as the 80th percentile EA’s cause prio, ranked by how much time they’ve spent thinking about cause prioritization.
(This is mostly because most EAs do not think about cause prio very much. I think you could outperform by spending ~1 week thinking about it, for example.)
Should you defer to price signals for choosing between organizations within a given cause?
This mostly seems decent to me. For example, CG struggled to find organizations better than Givewell’s top charities for near-termist, human-centric work.
Notable exceptions here for work which people don’t want to fund for non-effectiveness reasons, like politics or adversarial campaigning.
Should you defer to price signals for choosing between roles within an organization?
Yes, I mostly trust organizations to price appropriately, although also I think you can just ask the hiring manager.