Ok. :) For that question I might give a slightly lower than 50% chance that human-inspired space colonization would create more suffering than happiness (where the numerical magnitudes of happiness and suffering are as judged by a typical classical utilitarian). I think the default should be around 50% because for a typical classical utilitarian, it seems unclear whether a random collection of minds contains more suffering or happiness. There are some scenarios in which a human-inspired future might either be relatively altruistic with wide moral circles or relatively egalitarian such that selfishness alone can produce a significant surplus of happiness over suffering. However, there are also many possible futures where a powerful few oppressively control a powerless many with little concern for their welfare. Such political systems were very common historically and are still widespread today. And there may also be situations analogous to animal suffering of today in which most of the sentience that exists goes largely ignored.
The expected value of human-inspired space colonization may be less symmetric than this because it may be dominated by a few low-probability scenarios in which the future is very good or very bad, with very good futures plausibly being more likely.
Ok. :) For that question I might give a slightly lower than 50% chance that human-inspired space colonization would create more suffering than happiness (where the numerical magnitudes of happiness and suffering are as judged by a typical classical utilitarian). I think the default should be around 50% because for a typical classical utilitarian, it seems unclear whether a random collection of minds contains more suffering or happiness. There are some scenarios in which a human-inspired future might either be relatively altruistic with wide moral circles or relatively egalitarian such that selfishness alone can produce a significant surplus of happiness over suffering. However, there are also many possible futures where a powerful few oppressively control a powerless many with little concern for their welfare. Such political systems were very common historically and are still widespread today. And there may also be situations analogous to animal suffering of today in which most of the sentience that exists goes largely ignored.
The expected value of human-inspired space colonization may be less symmetric than this because it may be dominated by a few low-probability scenarios in which the future is very good or very bad, with very good futures plausibly being more likely.