I found this post after writing a related post. My post takes a different approach to the issue, fortunately. As a high-level comparison between our positions:
I agree that disappointing futures are very possible.
I agree that disappointing futures are about as bad as existential catastrophes. Indeed, I would definitely categorize disappointing futures as existential catastrophes: disappointing futures involve losing our potential, the definition of an existential catastrophe.
I am curious about what you think a disappointing future would look like. I believe it is very likely that we will soon (on the scale of civilization) go extinct or achieve technological maturity. If we achieve technological maturity, and if we do not optimize the universe for value, I expect that we will still use mature technology to make the future excellent by prosaic, provincial-human standards. Regardless, understanding what disappointing futures—or “pretty good” futures, my term matching my expectation—look like and what might cause them is important to avoid them.
I would be excited to discuss possible disappointing futures (in these comments, in the comments on my post, or on a call) if you’re interested.
I found this post after writing a related post. My post takes a different approach to the issue, fortunately. As a high-level comparison between our positions:
I agree that disappointing futures are very possible.
I agree that disappointing futures are about as bad as existential catastrophes. Indeed, I would definitely categorize disappointing futures as existential catastrophes: disappointing futures involve losing our potential, the definition of an existential catastrophe.
I am curious about what you think a disappointing future would look like. I believe it is very likely that we will soon (on the scale of civilization) go extinct or achieve technological maturity. If we achieve technological maturity, and if we do not optimize the universe for value, I expect that we will still use mature technology to make the future excellent by prosaic, provincial-human standards. Regardless, understanding what disappointing futures—or “pretty good” futures, my term matching my expectation—look like and what might cause them is important to avoid them.
I would be excited to discuss possible disappointing futures (in these comments, in the comments on my post, or on a call) if you’re interested.