I know there can be a tendency for goalposts to shift with these kinds of technology forecasting questions (fusion being a famous example), but I note that some people at least have been consistently sticking to their AGI timelines over more than a decade. Shane Legg being a prime example. He gave an expected-value (50%) estimate of AGI by 2028 way back in 2009 (that he claims dates back a further decade), that hestill maintains(!)
I know there can be a tendency for goalposts to shift with these kinds of technology forecasting questions (fusion being a famous example), but I note that some people at least have been consistently sticking to their AGI timelines over more than a decade. Shane Legg being a prime example. He gave an expected-value (50%) estimate of AGI by 2028 way back in 2009 (that he claims dates back a further decade), that he still maintains(!)