Note that whilst “≥10% chance of AGI in ≤10 years” is my claim, the aim of this post is also to encourage people to state their 10%-chance-by-year-X timeline estimates front and centre, as that is what should be action relevant—i.e. regarded as the deadline for solving Alignment (not 50%-chance-by-year-Y estimates).
Note that whilst “≥10% chance of AGI in ≤10 years” is my claim, the aim of this post is also to encourage people to state their 10%-chance-by-year-X timeline estimates front and centre, as that is what should be action relevant—i.e. regarded as the deadline for solving Alignment (not 50%-chance-by-year-Y estimates).