Interested to see answers to this question (given AGI arriving in the year that you think there is a 10% chance of it arriving, what is the probability of an existential catastrophe ensuing?):
P(existential catastrophe | AGI arriving in year with 10% chance of AGI)P(existential catastrophe | AGI arriving in year with 10% chance of AGI)
[Note that ideally I wanted there to be 2 questions:
1. Year with 10% chance of AGI. 2. P(doom|AGI in that year)
But Elicit embeds only allow for questions with a % answer, not a numerical (year) answer.]
A more general version would be for people to add counterparts to their probability distributions here, that are P(doom|AGI in each year) (factoring in expected progress in alignment).
Interested to see answers to this question (given AGI arriving in the year that you think there is a 10% chance of it arriving, what is the probability of an existential catastrophe ensuing?):
[Note that ideally I wanted there to be 2 questions:
1. Year with 10% chance of AGI.
2. P(doom|AGI in that year)
But Elicit embeds only allow for questions with a % answer, not a numerical (year) answer.]
A more general version would be for people to add counterparts to their probability distributions here, that are P(doom|AGI in each year) (factoring in expected progress in alignment).