I’m not convinced that the chances that efforts to end factory farming will (by default) become more likely to succeed over time—what’s your thinking behind this? Given the current trajectory of society (below), whilst I’m hopeful that is the case, it’s far from what I would expect. For example, I can imagine the “defensive capabilities” of the actors trying to uphold factory farming improve at the same or faster rate relative to the capabilities of farmed animal advocates.
Additionally, I’m not sure that the information value about our future prospects, by the simple statement, outweighs the suffering of trillions of animals over coming decades. This feels like a statement that is easy for us to make as humans, who largely aren’t subject to suffering as intense as faced by many farmed animals, but it might be different if we thought about this from behind a veil of ignorance where the likely outcome for a sentient being as a life of imprisonment and pain.
Thanks, I think both those points make sense. On the second point about value of information, the future for animals without humans would likely still be bad (because of wild animal suffering), and a future with humans could be less bad for animals (because we alleviate both wild and farmed animal suffering). So I don’ think it’s necessarily true that something as abstract as ‘a clearer picture of the future’ can’t be worth the price of present animal suffering, since one of the upshots of learning that picture might be to choose to live on and reduce overall animal suffering over the long run. Although of course you could just be very sceptical that the information value alone would be enough to justify another ⩾ half-century of animal suffering (and it certainly shouldn’t be used to excuse to wait around and not do things to urgently reduce that suffering). Though I don’t know exactly what you’re pointing at re “defensive capabilities” of factory farming.
I also think I share your short-term (say, ⩽ 25-year) pessimism about farmed animals. But in the longer run, I think there are some reasons for hope (if alt proteins get much cheaper and better, if humans do eventually decide to move away from animal agriculture for roughly ethical reasons, despite the track record of activism so far).
Of course there is a question of what to do if you are much more pessimistic even over the long-run for animal (or nonhuman) welfare. Even here, if “cause the end of human civilisation” were a serious option, I’d be very surprised if there weren’t many other serious options available to end factory farming without also causing the worst calamity ever.
(Don’t mean to represent you as taking a stand on whether extinction would be good fwiw)
I’m not convinced that the chances that efforts to end factory farming will (by default) become more likely to succeed over time—what’s your thinking behind this? Given the current trajectory of society (below), whilst I’m hopeful that is the case, it’s far from what I would expect. For example, I can imagine the “defensive capabilities” of the actors trying to uphold factory farming improve at the same or faster rate relative to the capabilities of farmed animal advocates.
Additionally, I’m not sure that the information value about our future prospects, by the simple statement, outweighs the suffering of trillions of animals over coming decades. This feels like a statement that is easy for us to make as humans, who largely aren’t subject to suffering as intense as faced by many farmed animals, but it might be different if we thought about this from behind a veil of ignorance where the likely outcome for a sentient being as a life of imprisonment and pain.
Thanks, I think both those points make sense. On the second point about value of information, the future for animals without humans would likely still be bad (because of wild animal suffering), and a future with humans could be less bad for animals (because we alleviate both wild and farmed animal suffering). So I don’ think it’s necessarily true that something as abstract as ‘a clearer picture of the future’ can’t be worth the price of present animal suffering, since one of the upshots of learning that picture might be to choose to live on and reduce overall animal suffering over the long run. Although of course you could just be very sceptical that the information value alone would be enough to justify another ⩾ half-century of animal suffering (and it certainly shouldn’t be used to excuse to wait around and not do things to urgently reduce that suffering). Though I don’t know exactly what you’re pointing at re “defensive capabilities” of factory farming.
I also think I share your short-term (say, ⩽ 25-year) pessimism about farmed animals. But in the longer run, I think there are some reasons for hope (if alt proteins get much cheaper and better, if humans do eventually decide to move away from animal agriculture for roughly ethical reasons, despite the track record of activism so far).
Of course there is a question of what to do if you are much more pessimistic even over the long-run for animal (or nonhuman) welfare. Even here, if “cause the end of human civilisation” were a serious option, I’d be very surprised if there weren’t many other serious options available to end factory farming without also causing the worst calamity ever.
(Don’t mean to represent you as taking a stand on whether extinction would be good fwiw)