Hi Will, really hope you can find time to engage. I think the points discussed are pretty cruxy for overall EA strategy! 3% chance of AI takeover, and 33% chance of TAI, by 2100, seems like it would put you in contention for winning your own FTX AI Worldview Prize[1] arguing for <7% chance of P(misalignment x-risk|AGI by 2070) (assuming ~2 of the 9% [3%/β33%] risk is in the 2070-2100 window).
If you were eligible
Hi Will, really hope you can find time to engage. I think the points discussed are pretty cruxy for overall EA strategy!
3% chance of AI takeover, and 33% chance of TAI, by 2100, seems like it would put you in contention for winning your own FTX AI Worldview Prize[1] arguing for <7% chance of P(misalignment x-risk|AGI by 2070) (assuming ~2 of the 9% [3%/β33%] risk is in the 2070-2100 window).
If you were eligible