Thanks for writing this up. This is what I did in 2018 and I have no regrets. It clearly seemed to me to be the right thing to do after I saw my Giving Tuesday 2017 donations get matched. I considered writing a similar post to this one after Giving Tuesday 2017 to encourage others to hold off on donating until Giving Tuesday 2018, but I don’t think I ever did due to (if I recall correctly):
(1) a worry that I would dissuade people from donating and worried that some of those people would suffer from value drift and no longer want to donate at all come Giving Tuesday, and
(2) I wasn’t sure if I had sufficient evidence to give others confidence that come Giving Tuesday 2018 they’d be able to get their donations matched.
This year for a US donor who is not concerned about value drift being a significant risk I agree with Cullen that this is probably a great bet again.
Thanks for writing this up. This is what I did in 2018 and I have no regrets. It clearly seemed to me to be the right thing to do after I saw my Giving Tuesday 2017 donations get matched. I considered writing a similar post to this one after Giving Tuesday 2017 to encourage others to hold off on donating until Giving Tuesday 2018, but I don’t think I ever did due to (if I recall correctly):
(1) a worry that I would dissuade people from donating and worried that some of those people would suffer from value drift and no longer want to donate at all come Giving Tuesday, and
(2) I wasn’t sure if I had sufficient evidence to give others confidence that come Giving Tuesday 2018 they’d be able to get their donations matched.
This year for a US donor who is not concerned about value drift being a significant risk I agree with Cullen that this is probably a great bet again.
And note that you can adjust for the probability of value drift in the spreadsheet :-)