Note that, strictly speaking, the formula is the value of a given dollar if invested until GT. So, if we’re referring to the 20,001st dollar, then we should probably adjust the probability of it getting matched down, way below my 30%. (Due to the time it takes to make several donations on Giving Tuesday morning, that probability should curve down before that anyway). But if you still assign it a probability of 12%, it’s worth doing now.
My personal credence that donations above $20K would be matched is probably much lower than this for the reasons you identify, though.
Thanks Jeff. I agree.
Note that, strictly speaking, the formula is the value of a given dollar if invested until GT. So, if we’re referring to the 20,001st dollar, then we should probably adjust the probability of it getting matched down, way below my 30%. (Due to the time it takes to make several donations on Giving Tuesday morning, that probability should curve down before that anyway). But if you still assign it a probability of 12%, it’s worth doing now.
My personal credence that donations above $20K would be matched is probably much lower than this for the reasons you identify, though.