“Check to see whether the field has tangible external accomplishments.”
This is a good one. I think you can decently hone your expertise assessment by taking an outside view which incorporates base-rates of strong expertise in the field amongst average practitioners, as well as the variance. (Say that five-times fast.) For example:
Forecasters: very low baserate, high variance
Doctors: high baserate, low-medium variance
Normal car repairpeople: medium baserate, low-medium variance (In this case, there is a more salient and practical ceiling to expertise. While a boxer might continuously improve her ability to box until she wins all possible matches (a really high ceiling), a repairperson can’t make a car dramatically “more repaired” than others. Though I suppose she might improve her speed at the process.)
Users of forks, people who walk, people who can recognize faces: high baserate, low variance
Mealsquares founders: enormously high baserate, extremely low variance =)
“Check to see whether the field has tangible external accomplishments.”
This is a good one. I think you can decently hone your expertise assessment by taking an outside view which incorporates base-rates of strong expertise in the field amongst average practitioners, as well as the variance. (Say that five-times fast.) For example:
Forecasters: very low baserate, high variance
Doctors: high baserate, low-medium variance
Normal car repairpeople: medium baserate, low-medium variance (In this case, there is a more salient and practical ceiling to expertise. While a boxer might continuously improve her ability to box until she wins all possible matches (a really high ceiling), a repairperson can’t make a car dramatically “more repaired” than others. Though I suppose she might improve her speed at the process.)
Users of forks, people who walk, people who can recognize faces: high baserate, low variance
Mealsquares founders: enormously high baserate, extremely low variance =)