It is the naive estimate and we would need a broader range of others’ estimates (e.g. on Metaculus) before we make concise predictions based on this. I also wouldn’t expect it to follow a gaussian at the moment but some mixture distribution of several parameters.
It is the naive estimate and we would need a broader range of others’ estimates (e.g. on Metaculus) before we make concise predictions based on this. I also wouldn’t expect it to follow a gaussian at the moment but some mixture distribution of several parameters.