I think the most powerful form of compounding in the EA movement context is of people and reputation, which are upstream of money and influence. Great people + great reputation → more great people + more great reputation.
Most endeavours over long periods of time have some geometric/compounding aspects, and some arithmetic aspects.
But usually, I think compounding is more important: that’s how you avoid ruin (which isn’t a big deal outside of compounding unless you use log utility which is equivalent to caring about compounding), and that’s how you get really big returns.
Successful countries weren’t built in a day. Successful charities weren’t built in a day. Many things have to go right, and some things must not happen, for a movement to succeed. That’s essentially just compounding.
Hmm, I don’t think I agree.
I think the most powerful form of compounding in the EA movement context is of people and reputation, which are upstream of money and influence. Great people + great reputation → more great people + more great reputation.
Most endeavours over long periods of time have some geometric/compounding aspects, and some arithmetic aspects.
But usually, I think compounding is more important: that’s how you avoid ruin (which isn’t a big deal outside of compounding unless you use log utility which is equivalent to caring about compounding), and that’s how you get really big returns.
Successful countries weren’t built in a day. Successful charities weren’t built in a day. Many things have to go right, and some things must not happen, for a movement to succeed. That’s essentially just compounding.