I felt this way reading the post as well “many of the most influential EA leaders” and “many EA leaders” and feels overly vague and implicitly normative. Perhaps as a constructive suggestion, we could attempt to list which leaders you mean?
Regarding 10% chance or greater of human extinction, here are the people I can think of who have expressed something like this view:
Toby Ord
Will MacAskill
80k leadership
OpenPhil leadership
Regarding “primarily concerned with AI safety”, it’s not clear to me whether this is in contrast to the x-risk portfolio approach that most funders like OpenPhil and FTX and career advisors like 80k are nonetheless taking. If you mean something like “most concerned about AI safety” or “most prioritize AI safety”, then this feels accurate of the above list of people.
To the extent possible, I think it’d be especially helpful to list the several people or institutions who believe in 50% chance of extinction, or who estimate AGI in 10 years vs 30 years vs 50 years, and what kind of influence they have.
I felt this way reading the post as well “many of the most influential EA leaders” and “many EA leaders” and feels overly vague and implicitly normative. Perhaps as a constructive suggestion, we could attempt to list which leaders you mean?
Regarding 10% chance or greater of human extinction, here are the people I can think of who have expressed something like this view:
Toby Ord
Will MacAskill
80k leadership
OpenPhil leadership
Regarding “primarily concerned with AI safety”, it’s not clear to me whether this is in contrast to the x-risk portfolio approach that most funders like OpenPhil and FTX and career advisors like 80k are nonetheless taking. If you mean something like “most concerned about AI safety” or “most prioritize AI safety”, then this feels accurate of the above list of people.
To the extent possible, I think it’d be especially helpful to list the several people or institutions who believe in 50% chance of extinction, or who estimate AGI in 10 years vs 30 years vs 50 years, and what kind of influence they have.