There’s a knock against prediction markets, here, too. A Metaculus forecast, in March of 2022 (the end of the period when one could make forecasts on this question), gave a 1.3% chance of FTX making any default on customer funds over the year. The probability that the Metaculus forecasters would have put on the claim that FTX would default on very large numbers of customer funds, as a result of misconduct, would presumably have been lower.
Metaculus isn’t a prediction market; it’s just an opinion poll of people who use the Metaculus website.
Metaculus isn’t a prediction market; it’s just an opinion poll of people who use the Metaculus website.
agree with “not a prediction market” but think “just an opinion poll” undersells it; people are evaluated and rewarded on their accuracy
Fair! That’s at least a super nonstandard example of an “opinion poll”.