The roulette example might get to the heart of the problem with the worm’s-eye view! From the worm’s-eye view, the sky will always be blue, so P(skycolor=green)=0, making it impossible to deal with problems where the sky might turn green in the future.
In the roulette example, we’re effectively dealing with an expected utility problem where we condition on existence when learning about the probability, but not when we act. That looks incoherent to me; we can’t condition and uncondition on an event willy-nilly: Either we will live in a world where an event must be true, or we don’t. So yeah, it seems like you’re right, and we’re effectively treating existence as a certainty when looking at the problem from the worm’s-eye view.
As I see it, this strongly suggests we should take the bird’s-eye view, as you proposed, and not the worm’s-eye view. Or something else entirely; I’m still uncomfortable pretending we could have observed non-existence.
The roulette example might get to the heart of the problem with the worm’s-eye view! From the worm’s-eye view, the sky will always be blue, so P(skycolor=green)=0, making it impossible to deal with problems where the sky might turn green in the future.
In the roulette example, we’re effectively dealing with an expected utility problem where we condition on existence when learning about the probability, but not when we act. That looks incoherent to me; we can’t condition and uncondition on an event willy-nilly: Either we will live in a world where an event must be true, or we don’t. So yeah, it seems like you’re right, and we’re effectively treating existence as a certainty when looking at the problem from the worm’s-eye view.
As I see it, this strongly suggests we should take the bird’s-eye view, as you proposed, and not the worm’s-eye view. Or something else entirely; I’m still uncomfortable pretending we could have observed non-existence.