Hmm, maybe you are right. Maybe we can only predict the business-as-usual scenario of humanity where there is economic stagnation with enough clarity to make useful conclusions from those predictions. I guess my only point then is that medium-term strategy like this is a bit less important because the future will probably not be business-as-usual for very long.
Well, we could also think about which scenarios lead to the most moral circle expansion for people who might be making decisions impacting the far future. So e.g., maybe expansion of animal advocacy to developing countries is less important because of this consideration? I don’t know how strong this consideration is though because I don’t how decision-making might look in the future but maybe nobody does. I guess doing many different things (which is what the author suggests) can also be good to prepare for future scenarios we can’t predict.
Hmm, maybe you are right. Maybe we can only predict the business-as-usual scenario of humanity where there is economic stagnation with enough clarity to make useful conclusions from those predictions. I guess my only point then is that medium-term strategy like this is a bit less important because the future will probably not be business-as-usual for very long.
Well, we could also think about which scenarios lead to the most moral circle expansion for people who might be making decisions impacting the far future. So e.g., maybe expansion of animal advocacy to developing countries is less important because of this consideration? I don’t know how strong this consideration is though because I don’t how decision-making might look in the future but maybe nobody does. I guess doing many different things (which is what the author suggests) can also be good to prepare for future scenarios we can’t predict.