(though they are mostly premised on alignment being relatively easy, which seems very wrong to me)
Not just alignment being easy, but alignment being easy with overwhelmingly high probability. It seems to me that pushing for an arms race is bad even if there’s only a 5% chance that alignment is hard.
I think most of those people believe that “having an AI aligned to ‘China’s values’” would be comparably bad to a catastrophic misalignment failure, and if you believe that, 5% is not sufficient, if you think there is a greater than 5% of China ending up with “aligned AI” instead.
I think that’s not a reasonable position to hold but I don’t know how to constructively argue against it in a short comment so I’ll just register my disagreement.
Like, presumably China’s values include humans existing and having mostly good experiences.
Not just alignment being easy, but alignment being easy with overwhelmingly high probability. It seems to me that pushing for an arms race is bad even if there’s only a 5% chance that alignment is hard.
I think most of those people believe that “having an AI aligned to ‘China’s values’” would be comparably bad to a catastrophic misalignment failure, and if you believe that, 5% is not sufficient, if you think there is a greater than 5% of China ending up with “aligned AI” instead.
I think that’s not a reasonable position to hold but I don’t know how to constructively argue against it in a short comment so I’ll just register my disagreement.
Like, presumably China’s values include humans existing and having mostly good experiences.
Yep, I agree with this, but it appears nevertheless a relatively prevalent opinion among many EAs working in AI policy.