I think describing anyone “Hitler-like” is pretty bad for the discourse quality, especially if you don’t support it with arguments. Autocrats differ quite a lot. For example, while Trump is extremely dismissive of democracy and willing to undermine it, he’s not as ideologically driven as Hitler and mostly interested in power and praise.
I am also extremely worried about Trump being elected, and agree with your list of bullet points being very concerning. However, it’s not certain that Trump would succeed in destroying US democracy.
Free & fair elections in 2028 if Trump is elected? 75% (n=35) to 80% (n=31)
If Dems win 2024, will Republicans attempt a coup? 21% (n=35) & 39% (n=12)
if elected, will Trump invoke insurrection Act within 3 months? 24% (n=60)
if elected in 2024, will Trump remain in charge in 2031? 7% (n=22)
All these are very concerning, but not certainties. Also, they all depend on specific resolution criteria and I wish there were more forecasters on these questions (so please join & promote it among friends!)
That said, I agree with your broader point that focusing on a few disparate policies while ignoring the undermining is democracy makes this not a great post. (Although I like the fact that specific policies can be discussed here, and some can still be positive!)
Thanks for your response. To be clear, you are aware of these Hitler-like facts regarding Donald Trump (just to list the ones that first come to mind):
In speeches he often describes plans to do massive-scale round ups of illegal immigrants into “camps” and mass deportations if he is elected again.
I would apologize for the relatively undiplomatic nature of my writing but the time for long-winded slow-moving discourse is long passed. There are barely 3 months left until the 2024 election which may prove to be one of the singular most important moments in human history.
If anyone is still undecided on this subject, please set aside a day this week to do your own research, come to a conclusion, and get to work. We need you.
I don’t think all of the examples are reliable indicators, but I agree policy changes, declarations, and executive orders are clear demonstrations of intent. On specifics:
As far as I can tell, Trump doesn’t support Fuentes and vice versa (at least for now?)
A lot of the quotes are from people in conflict with Trump that gain something from going to the press. The Hitler speeches story doesn’t sound credible, and the latter part is clearly a joke. I worry more about John Kelly’s claims.
There are a lot of 3 word matches you can get if you dig through every quote Hitler said.
The “stigmatize opponents as Nazis” tactic wins short-term but undermines epistemics and amplifies long-term conflict by reducing info access and the viability of reasonable dissent.
People with stigmatized beliefs hide them to keep their friends, and others become more sensitive to detect them. False-positive and false-negative rates go up. False accusations polarize victims and mobs while true accusations lose credibility as people cry wolf. Some associate with stigmatized people when they don’t intend to, others avoid associating with people that don’t even hold stigmatized views for their correlated reasonable views.
As all want every vote they can get, each side competes to stigmatize the other, while dog whistling to extremists to gain support without spooking the center. It’s a big defection trap we should step back from, and focusing directly on policy helps avoid distraction.
I think Trump would crack down on illegal immigration. I’d be unhappy if it goes beyond throwing out criminals with victims and illegal immigrants consuming more than they make. I doubt it will be as extreme as what he says, because few things ever are and it wasn’t before, but I do worry about downside risk. As things are, I worry more about status quo and downside risks with Harris on immigration outcomes and policy.
I think describing anyone “Hitler-like” is pretty bad for the discourse quality, especially if you don’t support it with arguments. Autocrats differ quite a lot. For example, while Trump is extremely dismissive of democracy and willing to undermine it, he’s not as ideologically driven as Hitler and mostly interested in power and praise.
I am also extremely worried about Trump being elected, and agree with your list of bullet points being very concerning. However, it’s not certain that Trump would succeed in destroying US democracy.
I am curating relevant forecasts [on Manifold] (https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy). Some relevant ones:
Free & fair elections in 2028 if Trump is elected? 75% (n=35) to 80% (n=31)
If Dems win 2024, will Republicans attempt a coup? 21% (n=35) & 39% (n=12)
if elected, will Trump invoke insurrection Act within 3 months? 24% (n=60)
if elected in 2024, will Trump remain in charge in 2031? 7% (n=22)
All these are very concerning, but not certainties. Also, they all depend on specific resolution criteria and I wish there were more forecasters on these questions (so please join & promote it among friends!)
That said, I agree with your broader point that focusing on a few disparate policies while ignoring the undermining is democracy makes this not a great post. (Although I like the fact that specific policies can be discussed here, and some can still be positive!)
Thanks for your response. To be clear, you are aware of these Hitler-like facts regarding Donald Trump (just to list the ones that first come to mind):
He is widely supported by white supremacists and has proudly supported them in return: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23484314/trump-fuentes-ye-dinner-white-nationalism-supremacy
After the violent and deadly white supremacist-led rally in Charlotesville in 2017 which featured Nazi and Neo-Nazi rally-goers, Trump remarked that there were “very fine people on both sides”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_the_Right_rally and https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116973/documents/HHRG-118-ED00-20240417-SD006.pdf.
As president he issued an executive order which banned entry to the US for people from a variety of muslim countries.
His own running mate once ruminated that he could be “America’s Hitler”.
He wife said he used to keep a book of Hitler’s speeches by his bedside and jokingly had an employee greet him with “Heil, Hitler”. https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-kept-hitler-speeches-by-his-bed-resurfaced-ivana-interview-reveals
He has literally quoted Hitler in his speeches, saying illegal immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of Americans, an exact parallel to Hitler saying Jewish people were poisoning the blood of Germans. https://apnews.com/article/trump-hitler-poison-blood-history-f8c3ff512edd120252596a4743324352
According to him, “Hitler did some good things”. https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/03/13/trump-hitler-putin-kim-jong-un-john-kelly
In speeches he often describes plans to do massive-scale round ups of illegal immigrants into “camps” and mass deportations if he is elected again.
I would apologize for the relatively undiplomatic nature of my writing but the time for long-winded slow-moving discourse is long passed. There are barely 3 months left until the 2024 election which may prove to be one of the singular most important moments in human history.
If anyone is still undecided on this subject, please set aside a day this week to do your own research, come to a conclusion, and get to work. We need you.
I don’t think all of the examples are reliable indicators, but I agree policy changes, declarations, and executive orders are clear demonstrations of intent. On specifics:
As far as I can tell, Trump doesn’t support Fuentes and vice versa (at least for now?)
I don’t think the fine people controversy was accurately portrayed:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-very-fine-people/
A lot of the quotes are from people in conflict with Trump that gain something from going to the press. The Hitler speeches story doesn’t sound credible, and the latter part is clearly a joke. I worry more about John Kelly’s claims.
There are a lot of 3 word matches you can get if you dig through every quote Hitler said.
The “stigmatize opponents as Nazis” tactic wins short-term but undermines epistemics and amplifies long-term conflict by reducing info access and the viability of reasonable dissent.
People with stigmatized beliefs hide them to keep their friends, and others become more sensitive to detect them. False-positive and false-negative rates go up. False accusations polarize victims and mobs while true accusations lose credibility as people cry wolf. Some associate with stigmatized people when they don’t intend to, others avoid associating with people that don’t even hold stigmatized views for their correlated reasonable views.
As all want every vote they can get, each side competes to stigmatize the other, while dog whistling to extremists to gain support without spooking the center. It’s a big defection trap we should step back from, and focusing directly on policy helps avoid distraction.
I think Trump would crack down on illegal immigration. I’d be unhappy if it goes beyond throwing out criminals with victims and illegal immigrants consuming more than they make. I doubt it will be as extreme as what he says, because few things ever are and it wasn’t before, but I do worry about downside risk. As things are, I worry more about status quo and downside risks with Harris on immigration outcomes and policy.