This is a notoriously hard problem to measure overall (there’s lots of variation in actual consumption vs reported diets, social desirability bias etc.), but there are several easier sub-sections of the problem that we can more easily measure and they tend to show exponential growth.
As un-scientific as it is, I also think the anecdotal evidence from long-term vegans is worth considering, Most people who have been vegan 10+ years (myself included) will acknowledge that the rate of growth over the last 5 years has been significantly faster than the 5 years before that across virtually every metric, from the number of vegans you meet in everyday life to the number of restaurants and products available to the overall attitude that the public has towards veganism etc.
I’ve been vegan for 11 years, and to me the growth felt faster in the first 5 years than it did in the second. This could easily just be due to my changing life circumstances (first 5 years as a student and living with other vegans), but that’s my personal anecdotal evidence. Recently it also seems like all the vegan restaurants have been closing in my city (Manchester, UK) although hopefully(?) that is more to do with the economic situation than with a decline in veganism.
The link you’ve shared on the proportion of the population identifying as vegan is encouraging, but I’m finding it hard to figure out the data source for their graph. I’m sure I saw some data shared by someone on the EA forum recently that suggested the growth of veganism had been stagnating recently, but not sure how to find that now!
This seems like a really important question though and I’d love to read an in-depth analysis of what the answer is likely to be.
This is a notoriously hard problem to measure overall (there’s lots of variation in actual consumption vs reported diets, social desirability bias etc.), but there are several easier sub-sections of the problem that we can more easily measure and they tend to show exponential growth.
We see this exponential pattern in the growth of vegan restaurants in Europe, the percentage of the UK population identifying as vegan and the number of products labelled as vegan worldwide, just as a few examples.
As un-scientific as it is, I also think the anecdotal evidence from long-term vegans is worth considering, Most people who have been vegan 10+ years (myself included) will acknowledge that the rate of growth over the last 5 years has been significantly faster than the 5 years before that across virtually every metric, from the number of vegans you meet in everyday life to the number of restaurants and products available to the overall attitude that the public has towards veganism etc.
I’ve been vegan for 11 years, and to me the growth felt faster in the first 5 years than it did in the second. This could easily just be due to my changing life circumstances (first 5 years as a student and living with other vegans), but that’s my personal anecdotal evidence. Recently it also seems like all the vegan restaurants have been closing in my city (Manchester, UK) although hopefully(?) that is more to do with the economic situation than with a decline in veganism.
The link you’ve shared on the proportion of the population identifying as vegan is encouraging, but I’m finding it hard to figure out the data source for their graph. I’m sure I saw some data shared by someone on the EA forum recently that suggested the growth of veganism had been stagnating recently, but not sure how to find that now!
This seems like a really important question though and I’d love to read an in-depth analysis of what the answer is likely to be.