For us, 2% is a fine (if perhaps conservative) estimate, though, as you note, it fluctuates. We don’t think that bond rates are likely to fall to zero any time soon, and if they fell by half (say, to 1%), that would still be a substantial amount of UBI generated. (I’ve edited the text to reflect this.)
To flip this around for a second, what would suffice — in terms of concreteness of future plans, benchmark returns at which we’d explicitly plan to pivot, or something like that — to make this no longer a red flag? Just curious if something comes to mind.
If I’m understanding the point about different theories of EV correctly, it’s that moving up 3 OOMs from extreme poverty to middle-class-in-America (MCiA) is a qualitatively different thing than moving from MCiA to fabulously wealthy (another way of saying this is that utility is non-linear)? If so, would you mind clarifying how endorsing one theory or another would impact how we conceive or execute our plans? It might not be super essential that I understand, so if it’s more effort than it’s worth to explain, no worries 😃
Some note to the effect that you’ve redteamed the strategy, planned for contingencies. I think if I had read a brief comment like
I think you’re following the way I set up the point about EV theories, what I meant really just had to do with risk tolerance, that I think the risk tolerance of the user base implies a more conservative approach.
gotcha, thanks. This goes back to the thing we’ve learned in the past few month that our potential donors and our potential users have, we think, pretty different attitudes towards risk. This is speculative, but I think that a stablecoin approach is likely to generate more usage but less fervor, and I think that tradeoff makes sense.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply Quinn.
For us, 2% is a fine (if perhaps conservative) estimate, though, as you note, it fluctuates. We don’t think that bond rates are likely to fall to zero any time soon, and if they fell by half (say, to 1%), that would still be a substantial amount of UBI generated. (I’ve edited the text to reflect this.)
To flip this around for a second, what would suffice — in terms of concreteness of future plans, benchmark returns at which we’d explicitly plan to pivot, or something like that — to make this no longer a red flag? Just curious if something comes to mind.
If I’m understanding the point about different theories of EV correctly, it’s that moving up 3 OOMs from extreme poverty to middle-class-in-America (MCiA) is a qualitatively different thing than moving from MCiA to fabulously wealthy (another way of saying this is that utility is non-linear)? If so, would you mind clarifying how endorsing one theory or another would impact how we conceive or execute our plans? It might not be super essential that I understand, so if it’s more effort than it’s worth to explain, no worries 😃
Some note to the effect that you’ve redteamed the strategy, planned for contingencies. I think if I had read a brief comment like
I think you’re following the way I set up the point about EV theories, what I meant really just had to do with risk tolerance, that I think the risk tolerance of the user base implies a more conservative approach.
gotcha, thanks. This goes back to the thing we’ve learned in the past few month that our potential donors and our potential users have, we think, pretty different attitudes towards risk. This is speculative, but I think that a stablecoin approach is likely to generate more usage but less fervor, and I think that tradeoff makes sense.