I mean, the alternative is the mosquitos dying later. Do we have reason to expect their later deaths to be any better? Given that mosquitos are R-strategists, it might be good to kill them if we think they live negative lives (which I do—I know you’re less certain).
I think it is super unclear whether wild animals (which are overwhelmingly r-strategists) have positive or negative lives. So I implicitly assumed mosquitoes not affected by ITNs have neutral lives, such that the welfare loss caused by ITNs corresponds to a net welfare loss. I agree ITNs may be beneficial if mosquitoes not affected by ITNs have negative lives, but they may also be more harmful if they have positive lives. There is also large uncertainty about how decreasing the number of mosquitoes impacts the welfare of other wild animals. So I conclude “it is unclear to me whether ITNs increase or decrease welfare”.
I recommend pursuing actions which are robustly beneficial under uncertainty instead of acting as if our best guesses are correct. In particular:
I believe the large uncertainty about the effects of human welfare interventions on wild (and farmed) animals should push one towards prioritising:
Animal welfare interventions improving the conditions of animals instead of decreasing the number of animals with negative lives, or increasing the number of animals with positive lives. I recommend donating to the Shrimp Welfare Project (SWP), which I estimate has been 64.3 k times as cost-effective as GW’s top charities (neglecting their effects on animals).
Learning more about helping invertebrates, whose total capacity for welfare vastly exceeds that of vertebrates. I recommend donating to (I ordered the organisations alphabetically):
The Arthropoda Foundation. Their research priorities are humane slaughter protocols, stocking densities and substrate research, and automated welfare assessment.
They intend “to use current and new funding” for, among other activities, “Conducting an analysis of agricultural pest control to better understand the best targets for welfare interventions — first identifying scientific gaps and then developing research plans to help fill them”.
I estimate paying farmers to use more humane pesticides to decrease the suffering of wild insects is 23.7 k times as cost-effective as GW’s top charities.
I disagree with you about wild animal welfare—I think it’s clearly negative. I agree though that we should be cautious and give to the wild animal institute. But even if they have positive lives, if they’ll still die eventually, this just pushes them back to have another more painful death.
Do you think paying for more human pesticides is more effective than SWP? And is there a charity doing that?
But even if they have positive lives, if they’ll still die eventually, this just pushes them back to have another more painful death.
I would much prefer ITNs which painlessly kill mosquitoes, but even these may be harmful. They would still decrease the population of mosquitoes, which would be harmful for mosquitoes if they had positive lives.
Do you think paying for more human pesticides is more effective than SWP? And is there a charity doing that?
“I estimate paying farmers to use more humane pesticides to decrease the suffering of wild insects is 23.7 k times as cost-effective as GW’s top charities”, which is 36.9 % (= 23.7*10^3/(64.3*10^3)) of my estimate for the past cost-effectiveness of SWP. I do not know about organisations paying farmers to use more humane pesticides. However:
I guess research on and advocacy for more humane pesticides are way more cost-effective than paying farmers to use them more. For example, I estimate cage-free campaigns improve 408 (= 10.8/0.0265) times as many chicken-years per $ as buying organic instead of barn eggs, which I determine from the ratio between 10.8 chicken-years per $ improved by cage-free campaigns, and 0.0265 chicken-years per $ (= 1/37.8) improved by buying organic instead of barn eggs. So I guess research on and advocacy for more humane pesticides is more cost-effective than SWP has been.
One can support research on more humane pesticides by donating to Wild Animal Initiative (WAI). They intend “to use current and new funding” for, among other activities, “Conducting an analysis of agricultural pest control to better understand the best targets for welfare interventions — first identifying scientific gaps and then developing research plans to help fill them”. So I think WAI is much more cost-effective than cage-free campaigns if a decent fraction of their additional funds go towards that, or if their various activities do not differ dramatically in cost-effectiveness, which both seem plausible. Feel free to contact Simon Eckerström Liedholm to learn about WAI’s work on humane pesticides.
There is lots of uncertainty in many of the inputs to my calculations, and I do not know which fraction of WAI’s additional funds are going towards research on more humane pesticies. So I do not have a strong view about whether WAI is more or less cost-effective than SWP. Arthropoda Foundation, SWP and WAI are my current top donation options.
I mean, the alternative is the mosquitos dying later. Do we have reason to expect their later deaths to be any better? Given that mosquitos are R-strategists, it might be good to kill them if we think they live negative lives (which I do—I know you’re less certain).
Hi Matthew,
I think it is super unclear whether wild animals (which are overwhelmingly r-strategists) have positive or negative lives. So I implicitly assumed mosquitoes not affected by ITNs have neutral lives, such that the welfare loss caused by ITNs corresponds to a net welfare loss. I agree ITNs may be beneficial if mosquitoes not affected by ITNs have negative lives, but they may also be more harmful if they have positive lives. There is also large uncertainty about how decreasing the number of mosquitoes impacts the welfare of other wild animals. So I conclude “it is unclear to me whether ITNs increase or decrease welfare”.
I recommend pursuing actions which are robustly beneficial under uncertainty instead of acting as if our best guesses are correct. In particular:
I disagree with you about wild animal welfare—I think it’s clearly negative. I agree though that we should be cautious and give to the wild animal institute. But even if they have positive lives, if they’ll still die eventually, this just pushes them back to have another more painful death.
Do you think paying for more human pesticides is more effective than SWP? And is there a charity doing that?
I would much prefer ITNs which painlessly kill mosquitoes, but even these may be harmful. They would still decrease the population of mosquitoes, which would be harmful for mosquitoes if they had positive lives.
“I estimate paying farmers to use more humane pesticides to decrease the suffering of wild insects is 23.7 k times as cost-effective as GW’s top charities”, which is 36.9 % (= 23.7*10^3/(64.3*10^3)) of my estimate for the past cost-effectiveness of SWP. I do not know about organisations paying farmers to use more humane pesticides. However:
There is lots of uncertainty in many of the inputs to my calculations, and I do not know which fraction of WAI’s additional funds are going towards research on more humane pesticies. So I do not have a strong view about whether WAI is more or less cost-effective than SWP. Arthropoda Foundation, SWP and WAI are my current top donation options.
Nitpick. Wild Animal Initiative.