Interestingly, metaculus forecast on this was off by an order of magnitude (15% vs 300-400%). Only three people forecasted, so I wouldn’t read too much into it, but it is a wide gap.
Interestingly, metaculus forecast on this was off by an order of magnitude (15% vs 300-400%). Only three people forecasted, so I wouldn’t read too much into it, but it is a wide gap.