Related to this, you can only multiply probabilities if they’re independent, but I think a lot of the listed probabilities are positively correlated, which means the joint probability is higher than their product. For example, it seems to me that “AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr” and “We massively scale production of chips and power” are strongly correlated.
Agreed. Factors like AI progress, inference costs, and manufacturing scale needed are massively correlated. We discuss this in the paper. Our unconditional independent forecast of semiconductor production would be much, much lower than our conditional forecast of 46%, for example.
Related to this, you can only multiply probabilities if they’re independent, but I think a lot of the listed probabilities are positively correlated, which means the joint probability is higher than their product. For example, it seems to me that “AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr” and “We massively scale production of chips and power” are strongly correlated.
Agreed. Factors like AI progress, inference costs, and manufacturing scale needed are massively correlated. We discuss this in the paper. Our unconditional independent forecast of semiconductor production would be much, much lower than our conditional forecast of 46%, for example.