I don’t know what “avoid derailment” means. It seems like these are just factors that affect the earlier estimates, so I guess the earlier quantities were supposed to be something like “the probability of developing AGI given that nothing weird happens in the world”? Or something?
Bingo. We didn’t take the time to articulate it fully, but yeah you got it. We think it makes it easier to forecast these things separately rather than invisibly smushing them together into a smaller set of factors.
But weird stuff is guaranteed to be happening in the world. I feel like this is the same deal as above, you should be multiplying out factors.
We are multiplying out factors. Not sure I follow you here.
Bingo. We didn’t take the time to articulate it fully, but yeah you got it. We think it makes it easier to forecast these things separately rather than invisibly smushing them together into a smaller set of factors.
We are multiplying out factors. Not sure I follow you here.