The event will either happen (1) or not (0). The 0.4% already reflects our uncertainty. In general, I don’t think it makes mathematical sense to discuss probabilities of probabilities.*
*although of course it can make sense to describe sensitivities of probabilities to new information coming in
What is a margin of error, here, exactly?
The event will either happen (1) or not (0). The 0.4% already reflects our uncertainty. In general, I don’t think it makes mathematical sense to discuss probabilities of probabilities.*
*although of course it can make sense to describe sensitivities of probabilities to new information coming in