One thing I find deeply unconvincing about such a low probability (< 1%) and that does not require expert knowledge is that other ways to slice this would yield much higher estimates.
E.g. it seems difficult to justify a less than 10% probability that there will be really strong pressures to develop AGI and it seems similarly difficult to justify a less than 10% success probability given such an effort and what we now know.
it seems difficult to justify a less than 10% probability that there will be really strong pressures to develop AGI
I agree there will be really strong pressures to develop AGI. Already, many research groups are investing billions today (e.g., Google DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic). I’d assign 100% probability to this rather than <10%. I guess it depends on how many billions of dollars of investment qualify as “strong pressures.”
it seems similarly difficult to justify a less than 10% success probability given such an effort and what we now know
Well, our essay is an attempt to forecast the likelihood of success, given what we know.
If you disagree with our estimates, would you care to supply your own? What conditional probabilities do you believe that result in a 10%+ chance of TAGI by 2043?
As I asked in the post:
If you disagree with our admittedly imperfect guesses, we kindly ask that you supply your own preferred probabilities (or framework modifications). It’s easier to tear down than build up, and we’d love to hear how you think this analysis can be improved.
One thing I find deeply unconvincing about such a low probability (< 1%) and that does not require expert knowledge is that other ways to slice this would yield much higher estimates.
E.g. it seems difficult to justify a less than 10% probability that there will be really strong pressures to develop AGI and it seems similarly difficult to justify a less than 10% success probability given such an effort and what we now know.
I agree there will be really strong pressures to develop AGI. Already, many research groups are investing billions today (e.g., Google DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic). I’d assign 100% probability to this rather than <10%. I guess it depends on how many billions of dollars of investment qualify as “strong pressures.”
Well, our essay is an attempt to forecast the likelihood of success, given what we know.
If you disagree with our estimates, would you care to supply your own? What conditional probabilities do you believe that result in a 10%+ chance of TAGI by 2043?
As I asked in the post: