I don’t know what massively scaling chips mean—again, it seems like this just depends crucially on how good your algorithms are. It feels more like you should be estimating multiple numbers and then seeing the probability that the product is large enough to be impactful.
Agree 100%. Our essay does exactly this, forecasting over a wide range of potential compute needs, before taking an expected value to arrive a single summary likelihood.
Sounds like you think we should have ascribed more probability to lower ranges, which is a totally fair disagreement.
Agree 100%. Our essay does exactly this, forecasting over a wide range of potential compute needs, before taking an expected value to arrive a single summary likelihood.
Sounds like you think we should have ascribed more probability to lower ranges, which is a totally fair disagreement.