My point in asking “Are you assigning probabilities to a war making AGI impossible?” was to emphasize that I don’t understand what 70% is a probability of, or why you are multiplying these numbers. I’m sorry if the rhetorical question caused confusion.
My current understanding is that 0.7 is basically just the ratio (Probability of AGI before thinking explicitly about the prospect of war) / (Probability of AGI after thinking explicitly about prospect of war). This isn’t really a separate event from the others in the list, it’s just a consideration that lengthens timelines. It feels like it would also make sense to list other considerations that tend to shorten timelines.
(I do think disruptions and weird events tend to make technological progress slower rather than faster, though I also think they tend to pull tiny probabilities up by adding uncertainty.)
My point in asking “Are you assigning probabilities to a war making AGI impossible?” was to emphasize that I don’t understand what 70% is a probability of, or why you are multiplying these numbers. I’m sorry if the rhetorical question caused confusion.
My current understanding is that 0.7 is basically just the ratio (Probability of AGI before thinking explicitly about the prospect of war) / (Probability of AGI after thinking explicitly about prospect of war). This isn’t really a separate event from the others in the list, it’s just a consideration that lengthens timelines. It feels like it would also make sense to list other considerations that tend to shorten timelines.
(I do think disruptions and weird events tend to make technological progress slower rather than faster, though I also think they tend to pull tiny probabilities up by adding uncertainty.)