We have a large universe of “technologies we make for economic benefit”: nearly all of them are “somewhat fine” to “very good”. Famous exceptions of course exist like leaded petrol but are relatively rare. I don’t count nuclear bombs in this comparison class given that they were explicitly invented to kill large numbers of people Given the massive commercial incentive to make AI useful, we should plausibly expect it to be safe. This is IMO the base-rate-thinking case. Purely from the outside view, we should expect AI to be fine.
We have a large universe of “technologies we make for economic benefit”: nearly all of them are “somewhat fine” to “very good”. Famous exceptions of course exist like leaded petrol but are relatively rare. I don’t count nuclear bombs in this comparison class given that they were explicitly invented to kill large numbers of people Given the massive commercial incentive to make AI useful, we should plausibly expect it to be safe. This is IMO the base-rate-thinking case. Purely from the outside view, we should expect AI to be fine.