The bet would only be for a nominal amount of money (e.g., $20) to the charity of the winner’s choice. The purpose of the bet is not to make money but for people to publicly state and commit to specific, dated predictions with firm resolution criteria.
This is the same philosophy behind longbets.org (a project of the Long Now Foundation), whose winnings all go to the charity of the winner’s choice. The minimum you can bet there is $200. Long Bets has been around since 2002, and the first bet is about AGI: https://​​longbets.org/​​1/​​
Bets for large sums of money not for charity are not legally enforceable (and possibly, but not necessarily, technically illegal, depending on jurisdiction), so the money involved is always theoretical anyway.
The bet would only be for a nominal amount of money (e.g., $20) to the charity of the winner’s choice. The purpose of the bet is not to make money but for people to publicly state and commit to specific, dated predictions with firm resolution criteria.
This is the same philosophy behind longbets.org (a project of the Long Now Foundation), whose winnings all go to the charity of the winner’s choice. The minimum you can bet there is $200. Long Bets has been around since 2002, and the first bet is about AGI: https://​​longbets.org/​​1/​​
Bets for large sums of money not for charity are not legally enforceable (and possibly, but not necessarily, technically illegal, depending on jurisdiction), so the money involved is always theoretical anyway.