I’ve been around EA pretty deeply since 2015, and to some degree since around 2009. My impression is that overall it’s what you guessed it might be: “selective memory, or post-hoc narrative construction.” Particularly around AI, but also in general with such claims.
(There’s a good reason to make specific, dated predictions publicly, in advance, ideally with some clear resolution criteria.)
I’ve been around EA pretty deeply since 2015, and to some degree since around 2009. My impression is that overall it’s what you guessed it might be: “selective memory, or post-hoc narrative construction.” Particularly around AI, but also in general with such claims.
(There’s a good reason to make specific, dated predictions publicly, in advance, ideally with some clear resolution criteria.)