Missed your reply in the other thread. I’ll accept this bet, with $20 to the charity of the winner’s choice. With the modification that since by 2027 Anthropic will probably be a public company that reports quarterly revenue every quarter instead of annualized revenue on an irregular schedule, $50 billion in revenue in calendar Q2 2027 would also count.
So, I propose a bet: if by June 1, 2027, Anthropic has at least $200 billion in annualized revenue, you win. If by June 1, 2027, Anthropic has less than $200 billion in annualized revenue, I win.
I think I’d put a ~60-70% chance that Anthropic exceeds this threshold.
Thanks, Josh. If Anthropic completes its IPO by then, that would be a convenient way to get reliable revenue reporting. Let me double check the math later when I have a chance and confirm. I want to make sure I did the extrapolation correctly.
Update (2026-07-20 at 23:40 UTC): We’ve been trying to hammer out the details of a bet over email, but nothing has been finalized.
Hi Yarrow,
Missed your reply in the other thread. I’ll accept this bet, with $20 to the charity of the winner’s choice. With the modification that since by 2027 Anthropic will probably be a public company that reports quarterly revenue every quarter instead of annualized revenue on an irregular schedule, $50 billion in revenue in calendar Q2 2027 would also count.
I think I’d put a ~60-70% chance that Anthropic exceeds this threshold.
Thanks, Josh. If Anthropic completes its IPO by then, that would be a convenient way to get reliable revenue reporting. Let me double check the math later when I have a chance and confirm. I want to make sure I did the extrapolation correctly.
Update (2026-07-20 at 23:40 UTC): We’ve been trying to hammer out the details of a bet over email, but nothing has been finalized.