Feedback request...
Thanks for reading! I’d love critique on:
The separability assumption.
Better decay models you’ve used (links welcome): exp vs. power-law, mixed regimes, or anything that handled domain shift well.
Measurement plan: Does the “evidence ladder” (near-term proxies → causal chains → reversible commitments) miss any obvious failure modes?
Dependence risk: If higher-stakes domains are also harder to predict, how would you model Cov(s(h),X(h)) in a simple way?
Thanks in advance for any pushback or pointers.
Feedback request...
Thanks for reading! I’d love critique on:
The separability assumption.
Better decay models you’ve used (links welcome): exp vs. power-law, mixed regimes, or anything that handled domain shift well.
Measurement plan: Does the “evidence ladder” (near-term proxies → causal chains → reversible commitments) miss any obvious failure modes?
Dependence risk: If higher-stakes domains are also harder to predict, how would you model Cov(s(h),X(h)) in a simple way?
Thanks in advance for any pushback or pointers.