NC3 early warning systems are susceptible to error signals, and the chain of command hasn’t always been v secure (and may not be today), so it wouldn’t necessarily be that hard for a relatively unsophisticated AGI to spoof and trigger a nuclear war:* certainly easier than many other avenues that would involve cracking scientific problems.
(*which is another thing from hacking to the level of “controlling” the arsenal and being able to retarget it at will, which would probably require a more advanced capability, where the risk from the nuclear avenue might perhaps be redundant compared to risks from other, direct avenues).
Incidentally, at CSER I’ve been working with co-authors on a draft chapter that explores “military AI as cause or compounder of global catastrophic risk”, and one of the avenues also involves discussion of what we call “weapons/arsenal overhang”, so this is an interesting topic that I’d love to discuss more
NC3 early warning systems are susceptible to error signals, and the chain of command hasn’t always been v secure (and may not be today), so it wouldn’t necessarily be that hard for a relatively unsophisticated AGI to spoof and trigger a nuclear war:* certainly easier than many other avenues that would involve cracking scientific problems.
(*which is another thing from hacking to the level of “controlling” the arsenal and being able to retarget it at will, which would probably require a more advanced capability, where the risk from the nuclear avenue might perhaps be redundant compared to risks from other, direct avenues).
Incidentally, at CSER I’ve been working with co-authors on a draft chapter that explores “military AI as cause or compounder of global catastrophic risk”, and one of the avenues also involves discussion of what we call “weapons/arsenal overhang”, so this is an interesting topic that I’d love to discuss more
Ok thanks this makes more sense to me now