Yeah, but as you point out below, that simple model makes some unrealistic assumptions (e.g., that a solution will definitely be found that fully eliminates farmed animal suffering, and that a person starts contributing, in expectation, to solving meat eating at age 0). So it still seems to me that a better argument is needed to shift the prior.
Yeah, but as you point out below, that simple model makes some unrealistic assumptions (e.g., that a solution will definitely be found that fully eliminates farmed animal suffering, and that a person starts contributing, in expectation, to solving meat eating at age 0). So it still seems to me that a better argument is needed to shift the prior.
Fair enough.
My central expectation is that value of one more human life created is roughly about even with the amount of nonhuman suffering that life would cause (based on here https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​eomJTLnuhHAJ2KcjW/​​comparison-between-the-hedonic-utility-of-human-life-and#Poultry_living_time_per_capita). I’m also willing to assume cultured meat is not too long away. Then the childhood delay til contribution only makes a fractional difference and I tip very slightly back into the pro natalist camp, while still accepting that the meat eater problem is relevant.