Really glad to hear from you, since I greatly appreciated your work on the AI 2027 material!
You’re right that there are two errors here that need to be corrected. One is that it should be .82 rather than .082. The other is that I intended to be using the numbers from the “naive estimate” column of Table 8 on page 21 in the Erdil paper, which are calculated using a simple process which (to my mind) is likely to be less subject to errors introduced by model choice, but the 1.58 is the 50% estimate from their more complex model — the naive estimate is 1.66. The Feller diffusion model is relevant to their more complex calculations, about which I am a little suspicious, but not to their naive calculations.
Really glad to hear from you, since I greatly appreciated your work on the AI 2027 material!
You’re right that there are two errors here that need to be corrected. One is that it should be .82 rather than .082. The other is that I intended to be using the numbers from the “naive estimate” column of Table 8 on page 21 in the Erdil paper, which are calculated using a simple process which (to my mind) is likely to be less subject to errors introduced by model choice, but the 1.58 is the 50% estimate from their more complex model — the naive estimate is 1.66. The Feller diffusion model is relevant to their more complex calculations, about which I am a little suspicious, but not to their naive calculations.