While we hope to publish an estimate of our average multiplier for 2025 in early 2026
Great to know!
I currently don’t expect to try to explicitly estimate our marginal multiplier. One key reason for this is that, unless we have identified a very scalable method for growing pledges, our marginal multiplier estimate would change quite quickly as we receive more funding and so may only be relevant for a brief period.
I think estimating in early 2026 GWWC’s marginal multiplier in 2025 would still be useful. A value higher than 1 would suggest GWWC should have received more funding this year.
The marginal multiplier should ideally not vary much across years. GWWC should move funds from the years with the lowest marginal multiplier to the years with the highest marginal multiplier until the marginal multiplier is the same across all years. If you estimated your marginal multiplier annually, you could realise you should have spent more/​less if you marginal multiplier decreased/​increased.
Thanks, Aidan!
Great to know!
I think estimating in early 2026 GWWC’s marginal multiplier in 2025 would still be useful. A value higher than 1 would suggest GWWC should have received more funding this year.
The marginal multiplier should ideally not vary much across years. GWWC should move funds from the years with the lowest marginal multiplier to the years with the highest marginal multiplier until the marginal multiplier is the same across all years. If you estimated your marginal multiplier annually, you could realise you should have spent more/​less if you marginal multiplier decreased/​increased.