Some “criticisms” are actually self-fulfilling propheciesEAs are far too inclined to abandon high-EV ideas that are <50% likely to succeedOver-relying on outside views over inside views.Picking the wrong outside view / reference class, or not even considering the different reference classes on offer.
Some “criticisms” are actually self-fulfilling prophecies
EAs are far too inclined to abandon high-EV ideas that are <50% likely to succeed
Over-relying on outside views over inside views.
Picking the wrong outside view / reference class, or not even considering the different reference classes on offer.
Strong upvote for these.
Strong upvote for these.