Here’s the link to the Facebook group post in case people add criticisms there.
Glad you linked to Holden Karnofski’s MIRI post. Other possibly relevant posts from the GiveWell blog:
Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally even when they’re unbiased (I remember this causing a stir on LW)
Sequence vs cluster thinking
There are more on a similar philosophical slant (search for “explicit expected value”) but the above seem the most criticismy.
Here’s the link to the Facebook group post in case people add criticisms there.
Glad you linked to Holden Karnofski’s MIRI post. Other possibly relevant posts from the GiveWell blog:
Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally even when they’re unbiased (I remember this causing a stir on LW)
Sequence vs cluster thinking
There are more on a similar philosophical slant (search for “explicit expected value”) but the above seem the most criticismy.