It just occurred to me that you don’t actually need to convert the forecaster’s odds to bits. You can just take the ceiling of the odds themselves:
Which is more useful for calibrating in the low-confidence range.
It just occurred to me that you don’t actually need to convert the forecaster’s odds to bits. You can just take the ceiling of the odds themselves:
O(p)=⌈p1−p⌉S(p,c)={O(p)if c=1−O(p)(O(p)+1)2if c=0Which is more useful for calibrating in the low-confidence range.