Executive summary: A new dataset on historical crises challenges several grand narratives about societal resilience and transformation, finding that crisis severity has not declined over time, reforms do not correlate with crisis intensity, and revolutions are a key driver of change.
Key points:
The dataset covers 168 crises from the Bronze Age to the early 20th century, with data on outcomes, intensity, reforms, polity characteristics, and complexity.
Crises are highly variable in duration, outcomes, and intensity, with no clear trends over time, though crises may be slightly more severe in the latter half of a polity’s lifespan.
Crisis intensity does not correlate with the extent of subsequent reforms; instead, revolutions and lower administrative complexity are associated with more reforms.
The data challenges historical narratives about declining violence, the link between crisis severity and transformation, and the role of religion, while partially supporting theories of diminishing returns to complexity.
Factors shaping crisis severity and reform include external shocks, elite behavior, state capacity, and the occurrence of revolutions.
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Executive summary: A new dataset on historical crises challenges several grand narratives about societal resilience and transformation, finding that crisis severity has not declined over time, reforms do not correlate with crisis intensity, and revolutions are a key driver of change.
Key points:
The dataset covers 168 crises from the Bronze Age to the early 20th century, with data on outcomes, intensity, reforms, polity characteristics, and complexity.
Crises are highly variable in duration, outcomes, and intensity, with no clear trends over time, though crises may be slightly more severe in the latter half of a polity’s lifespan.
Crisis intensity does not correlate with the extent of subsequent reforms; instead, revolutions and lower administrative complexity are associated with more reforms.
The data challenges historical narratives about declining violence, the link between crisis severity and transformation, and the role of religion, while partially supporting theories of diminishing returns to complexity.
Factors shaping crisis severity and reform include external shocks, elite behavior, state capacity, and the occurrence of revolutions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.