FWIW, I’m not sure about the overall sign of humanity’s impact on wild invertebrate populations, and I think neither is Brian Tomasik. Some reasons in favour of little/no clear change or increasing populations instead:
Copepod (zooplankton) populations may increase from ocean warming, due to increased survival, hatching and egg production: “However, the effects of near-future OW (+2 to 4°C) seem mainly positive unless these temperatures exceed a species’ thermal limit.” (Hemraj et al, 2021).
Trend signs can be sensitive to location, the baseline year and study period (Francois et al., 2022, Høye et al., 2020), so longer study periods give more reliable estimates. 10 years is probably generally too short to infer much (without controls, at least).
Crops may increase in NPP over time as we increase productivity or switch to more productive crops, and we may also move away from grazing due to its greater land use.
FWIW, I’m not sure about the overall sign of humanity’s impact on wild invertebrate populations, and I think neither is Brian Tomasik. Some reasons in favour of little/no clear change or increasing populations instead:
Copepod (zooplankton) populations may increase from ocean warming, due to increased survival, hatching and egg production: “However, the effects of near-future OW (+2 to 4°C) seem mainly positive unless these temperatures exceed a species’ thermal limit.” (Hemraj et al, 2021).
Freshwater insect populations may be increasing (Klink et al., 2020).
Trend signs can be sensitive to location, the baseline year and study period (Francois et al., 2022, Høye et al., 2020), so longer study periods give more reliable estimates. 10 years is probably generally too short to infer much (without controls, at least).
Some crops may increase NPP and invertebrate populations (https://reducing-suffering.org/crop-cultivation-and-wild-animals/, https://reducing-suffering.org/vegetarianism-and-wild-animals/#Crop_cultivation), and more humans means more crops.
Crops may increase in NPP over time as we increase productivity or switch to more productive crops, and we may also move away from grazing due to its greater land use.