I think 2-10x is the wrong average multiplier across lottery winners (though, in fairness, you didn’t explicitly claim it was an average). In order to make good grants to new small high-risk things, you need to hear about them, and I suspect most lottery participants don’t have the necessary networks and don’t have special access to significant private information – after all, private information doesn’t spread well.
Concretely I’m suggesting that the median lottery participant doesn’t get any benefit at all from the ability to use private information.
I disagree. You should not have as a central example some sort of secret, but trust. Transitivity of trust is limited, and everybody has a unique position in the trust network. Many will have interesting opportunities in their network neighborhoods. (I don’t claim to be typical, but still: I can easily list maybe a dozen of such not easily justifiable opportunities where I could send money; even if I’m somewhere on the tail on the distribution, I’d guess typical lottery winner has at leas 1 or 2 such opportunitites)
I think 2-10x is the wrong average multiplier across lottery winners (though, in fairness, you didn’t explicitly claim it was an average). In order to make good grants to new small high-risk things, you need to hear about them, and I suspect most lottery participants don’t have the necessary networks and don’t have special access to significant private information – after all, private information doesn’t spread well.
Concretely I’m suggesting that the median lottery participant doesn’t get any benefit at all from the ability to use private information.
I disagree. You should not have as a central example some sort of secret, but trust. Transitivity of trust is limited, and everybody has a unique position in the trust network. Many will have interesting opportunities in their network neighborhoods. (I don’t claim to be typical, but still: I can easily list maybe a dozen of such not easily justifiable opportunities where I could send money; even if I’m somewhere on the tail on the distribution, I’d guess typical lottery winner has at leas 1 or 2 such opportunitites)