Executive summary: The author creates 20 prediction markets on Manifold Markets to forecast which new EA cause areas will receive significant funding ($10M+) by 2030, in order to spark conversations and identify promising areas for future work.
Key points:
The markets cover potential new EA cause areas across animal welfare, global health, institutional improvements, investing, existential risk, AI, transhumanism, and moral philosophy.
Funding of $10M+ from EA sources between 2023-2029 is the criteria for a cause area being considered “mainstream”.
The author hopes these markets will help create common knowledge around promising cause areas and inspire people to start new projects in likely-to-be-funded areas.
The $10M threshold is chosen to indicate a cause area has moved beyond exploratory research to serious real-world interventions.
The author provides examples of cause areas that have already received >$10M from OpenPhil alone in the past decade for comparison.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: The author creates 20 prediction markets on Manifold Markets to forecast which new EA cause areas will receive significant funding ($10M+) by 2030, in order to spark conversations and identify promising areas for future work.
Key points:
The markets cover potential new EA cause areas across animal welfare, global health, institutional improvements, investing, existential risk, AI, transhumanism, and moral philosophy.
Funding of $10M+ from EA sources between 2023-2029 is the criteria for a cause area being considered “mainstream”.
The author hopes these markets will help create common knowledge around promising cause areas and inspire people to start new projects in likely-to-be-funded areas.
The $10M threshold is chosen to indicate a cause area has moved beyond exploratory research to serious real-world interventions.
The author provides examples of cause areas that have already received >$10M from OpenPhil alone in the past decade for comparison.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.