“The traditional development model of rapid growth in jobs and income through manufacturing exports is breaking down.”—Doesn’t this suggest that the return-and-found-an-export-oriented-manufacturing-business channel for emigration benefitting origin countries is narrowing? And with AI I would guess that the return-and-found-a-services-outsourcing-business channel is rapidly closing, too.
That leaves us with just remittances from service worker emigres and the knock-on effect on educational attainment (the 90% of Filipino nurse trainees who don’t get to emigrate).
Heh, the article’s somewhat contradiction on that does reflect my ambivalence… on the one hand I do think the manufacturing led path is getting narrower, on the other hand I think emigration can help countries get on the path. On AI and services, I think it may depend on the type—business process outsourcing I don’t think (?) has taken a big hit yet but could well be a matter of time, don’t know about software jobs in India, but could imagine they might also decline. On the other hand tourism, medical tourism both comparatively AI proof, and many things probably somewhere in between?
“The traditional development model of rapid growth in jobs and income through manufacturing exports is breaking down.”—Doesn’t this suggest that the return-and-found-an-export-oriented-manufacturing-business channel for emigration benefitting origin countries is narrowing? And with AI I would guess that the return-and-found-a-services-outsourcing-business channel is rapidly closing, too.
That leaves us with just remittances from service worker emigres and the knock-on effect on educational attainment (the 90% of Filipino nurse trainees who don’t get to emigrate).
Heh, the article’s somewhat contradiction on that does reflect my ambivalence… on the one hand I do think the manufacturing led path is getting narrower, on the other hand I think emigration can help countries get on the path. On AI and services, I think it may depend on the type—business process outsourcing I don’t think (?) has taken a big hit yet but could well be a matter of time, don’t know about software jobs in India, but could imagine they might also decline. On the other hand tourism, medical tourism both comparatively AI proof, and many things probably somewhere in between?